Most San Jose neighborhood values will continue to perform well in 2011 and into 2012 even with the recent negative news about Bank of America unleashing a slew of new foreclosures into California in the coming months.
Foreclosure levels will remain the same in 2012
That’s a pretty bold statement on my behalf but having just retuned from a national foreclosure convention I stand in pretty good company including the likes of Freddy Mac economists and various other national asset diposition companies who are all waiting for the foreclosure activity to increase.
The challenge over the last year has been the slow and methodical process of making sure banks are staying within the legal boundaries of the foreclosure process all brought on by the ROBO signing lawsuits. As a result the anticipated levels of foreclosiure activites are expected to stay at current levels through 2012.
What does this mean for San Jose Neighborhoods?
Neighborhoods like Willow Glen, Rose Garden, Almaden Valley, and Santana Row to name a few should continue to maintained their values while Downtown, Central San Jose, South San Jose, and the east valley will feel the affects of foreclosure activity.
Should I wait for the market to turn?
Experts at the foreclosure convention are now saying that we will continue to see the current real estate market through 2016. You have plenty of time to buy before the market sees a significant change and until then buyers will continue to find opportunities in those neighborhoods affected by foreclosures.
May Foreclosure data didn’t show much of a difference other than the continued climb to a one year average from the time of a default to sale date. This trent continues to show evidence that foreclosure modification efforts and short sales are allowing homeowners more time to help them stay in their homes.
Foreclosure inventories stayed steady with little change to the amount of people who defaulted on their loans(green) and even less sale activity(blue). This is the first month that showed 0% activity in REO inventory levels(red).
Notice of sales increased(blue) while people who received a notice of default fell slightly(green).
Cancellations fell last month reducing the amount of foreclosure postponements for people currently in default(grey). Postponements(cancellations) are a good indicator of modification and short sale activity. The number of properties going back to the banks as a result of a sale increased slightly(red).
The average time a homeowner had before losing their home to foreclosure has continued its steady climb and is close to one year(green). Bank are taking an average of 200 days to sell properties(red).
Project Homeowner
I’m sure by now you must have heard some news about a foreclosure prevention event going on in downtown San Jose this week but do these guys really help where most people have run into decline after decline to a modification request. I can’t really say that NACA will save your home from foreclosure but what I can tell you is what I have seen in my own experience with Project Homeowner.
Project Homeowner
A few years ago the Department of Real Estate and CHASE got together to create a traveling foreclosure prevention roadshow very similar to what you now see on a regular basis at events like the NACA one in San Jose.
- What has changed from few years ago is the investors willingness to participate in such events by allowing the borrower to modify.
- What hasn’t changed are the general guidelines of most investors and that is “Does this modification help the homeowner?”.
Project homeowner was revolutionary because it was able to bring the big lenders to the table (CHASE, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, etc…) and a few years ago lenders did not have staff on the ground to accommodate this need.
What NACA brings to the table
One of the reasons NACA has had much success nation wide is because of the media attention and I would imagine the lenders looking for an opportunity to create positive public relations impact with it’s homeowners.
Some things never change
The bottom line is this;
- If the lender owns the note(your loan) then your chances of a modification increase greatly. If an outside investor owns the note the bank must ask for investor for approval in order to modify your loan.
- Either way this scenario has not changed from past years and can dramatically increase your chances of a successful modification.
It doesn’t hurt to try
I received a call from a client over the weekend asking me if they should try to modify though NACA and may answer was “absolutely yes”. The great thing about this event is that most of the big lenders have staff to help escalate your situation to a level where the decision makers can help you get to your goal.
NACA Foreclosure Prevention infomration:
https://www.naca.com/index_main.jsp
Foreclosure Filings* have dropped over since February as shown by the Notice of Sale indicator down 32% from the previous year.
Foreclosure Outcomes* show cancellations are way up over the previous year possibly fueled by successful short sales. My own experience tells me that modifications made up a very small percentage of these cancellations. REO indicator also shows that properties are not going back to bank compared to the previous year again fueling my thought that properties are having success in short sale and modification attempts.
2011 Foreclosure Inventories* have stayed steady with a steady drop in scheduled sale dates possibly fueled by modifications or short sales.
Foreclosure Timeframes*
The interesting fact about this chart is how many months it’s taking for a bank to foreclose compared to the previous year there are clear signs that banks are moving though the foreclosure process much faster 5.97% compared to 21.66% from the previous year.
*Foreclosureradar.com
Foreclosure Radar reports a drop in Notice of Default(NOD) filings from this time last year. The data supports our recent experience between investors and our clients who are working to modify their loans or short sale before a NOD is filed. I have been seeing more cooperation by lenders and servicers when communicating our intent ahead of time.
Foreclosure is a Reality in 2011
The federal government has provided relief programs to help those who would like to modify their loan and the Obama administration efforts continue but there have been recent attempts by federal legislators to kill HAMP. As you see in this chart investors are also throwing in the towel and my sense is that those people who haven’t made a mortgage payment in 18+ months are now going to have to come to grips with the reality that foreclosure is on the near horizon.
Cancellations have dropped indicating that modifications and/or a short sales continue to be a challenge for some homeowners. REO numbers also indicate that banks are steadily foreclosing in Santa Clara County.
Affordable Market Hit Hardest
The chart below shows the $300,000 to $500,000 real estate market has been impacted the most in February.
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