Most San Jose neighborhood values will continue to perform well in 2011 and into 2012 even with the recent negative news about Bank of America unleashing a slew of new foreclosures into California in the coming months.

Foreclosure levels will remain the same in 2012

That’s a pretty bold statement on my behalf but having just retuned from a national foreclosure convention I stand in pretty good company including the likes of Freddy Mac economists and various other national asset diposition companies who are all waiting for the foreclosure activity to increase.

The challenge over the last year has been the slow and methodical process of making sure banks are staying within the legal boundaries of the foreclosure process all brought on by the ROBO signing lawsuits. As a result the anticipated levels of foreclosiure activites are expected to stay at current levels through 2012.

What does this mean for San Jose Neighborhoods?

Neighborhoods like Willow Glen, Rose Garden, Almaden Valley, and Santana Row to name a few should continue to maintained their values while Downtown, Central San Jose, South San Jose, and the east valley will feel the affects of foreclosure activity.

Should I wait for the market to turn?

Experts at the foreclosure convention are now saying that we will continue to see the current real estate market through 2016. You have plenty of time to buy before the market sees a significant change and until then buyers will continue to find opportunities in those neighborhoods affected by foreclosures.

Related articles

• California foreclosures set to surge (Housingwire.com)

July 1st 2011 was the the day we finally closed a 605 day short sale for a client who tried to modify and could not qualify. As a result the sellers decided to proceed with a short sale but for a multitude of reasons we ended up going through through six different buyers and a dozen price reductions.

August 2009 was a turbulent time with most banks as they began shifting their short sale servicing systems from fax based processing to uploading documents into a task based system. Bank of America began shifting to web based short sale submissions because they just could not keep up with lost paperwork, missing documents, and lack of support staff. Soon most banks began making their own shift to prevent the endless duplication of effort.

What I Learned and What You Should Know

Through all of this I decided it was important to share the five most important changes that prevented us from closing in less than six months instead of almost two years.

1. The buyer and their agent must be totally committed to the process by putting earnest money in escrow.

2. Always have a backup offer in case the buyer backs out.

3. Investors need to know that your agent knows the value of your neighborhood. Make sure your agent knows how to prepare a broker price opinion to support the value of the purchase contract.

4. Banks and investors are always changing guidelines and requirements for submission of short sale packets. I have a network of short sale specialists that check in with each other to stay on top of recent changes.

5. Sellers must be willing to be patient with the short sale process. The sellers of the property mentioned in this post experienced a roller coaster of emotions all the way to the very end.

The Moral of The Story

Change will always be part of the short sale process, it really has improved and the success rate continues to climb from 20% to 70%. There are too many details to document in one blog post. In short, the process has improved and it can and will continue to get better.

06085 – Foreclosure Inventories

Foreclosure inventories stayed steady with little change to the amount of people who defaulted on their loans(green) and even less sale activity(blue). This is the first month that showed 0% activity in REO inventory levels(red).

06085 – Foreclosure Filings

Notice of sales increased(blue) while people who received a notice of default fell slightly(green).

06085 – Foreclosure Outcomes

Cancellations fell last month reducing the amount of foreclosure postponements for people currently in default(grey). Postponements(cancellations) are a good indicator of modification and short sale activity. The number of properties going back to the banks as a result of a sale increased slightly(red).

06085 – Time to Foreclose

The average time a homeowner had before losing their home to foreclosure has continued its steady climb and is close to one year(green). Bank are taking an average of 200 days to sell properties(red).

Project Homeowner

I’m sure by now you must have heard some news about a foreclosure prevention event going on in downtown San Jose this week but do these guys really help where most people have run into decline after decline to a modification request. I can’t really say that NACA will save your home from foreclosure but what I can tell you is what I have seen in my own experience with Project Homeowner.

Project Homeowner

A few years ago the Department of Real Estate and CHASE got together to create a traveling foreclosure prevention roadshow very similar to what you now see on a regular basis at events like the NACA one in San Jose.

• What has changed from few years ago is the investors willingness to participate in such events by allowing the borrower to modify.
• What hasn’t changed are the general guidelines of most investors and that is “Does this modification help the homeowner?”.

Project homeowner was revolutionary because it was able to bring the big lenders to the table (CHASE, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, etc…) and a few years ago lenders did not have staff on the ground to accommodate this need.

What NACA brings to the table

One of the reasons NACA has had much success nation wide is because of the media attention and I would imagine the lenders looking for an opportunity to create positive public relations impact with it’s homeowners.

Some things never change

The bottom line is this;

• If the lender owns the note(your loan) then your chances of a modification increase greatly. If an outside investor owns the note the bank must ask for investor for approval in order to modify your loan.
• Either way this scenario has not changed from past years and can dramatically increase your chances of a successful modification.

It doesn’t hurt to try

I received a call from a client over the weekend asking me if they should try to modify though NACA and may answer was “absolutely yes”. The great thing about this event is that most of the big lenders have staff to help escalate your situation to a level where the decision makers can help you get to your goal.

NACA Foreclosure Prevention infomration:

https://www.naca.com/index_main.jsp

Foreclosure Filings* have dropped over since February as shown by the Notice of Sale indicator down 32% from the previous year.

06085 – Foreclosure Outcomes

Foreclosure Outcomes* show cancellations are way up over the previous year possibly fueled by successful short sales. My own experience tells me that modifications made up a very small percentage of these cancellations. REO indicator also shows that properties are not going back to bank compared to the previous year again fueling my thought that properties are having success in short sale and modification attempts.

06085 – Foreclosure Inventories

2011 Foreclosure Inventories* have stayed steady with a steady drop in scheduled sale dates possibly fueled by modifications or short sales.

06085 – Time to Foreclose

Foreclosure Timeframes*
The interesting fact about this chart is how many months it’s taking for a bank to foreclose compared to the previous year there are clear signs that banks are moving though the foreclosure process much faster 5.97% compared to 21.66% from the previous year.

*Foreclosureradar.com

Related articles

• Santa Clara County Foreclosures, Bank Owned Homes, Short Sales (foreclosureradar.com)

• In Santa Clara County only 37% of the population can afford to buy a home at the $545,000 median range.
• The required take home to purchase is $117,630.
• Your monthly payment will be around $2,940.

The Chart below shows the cost of home ownership in California.

Related articles

• C.A.R. releases Q1 2011 Housing Affordability Index (car.org)

Check out my video update for the Santana Row area neighborhoods. Find out how long it takes to sell a home in these neighborhoods and what the market is telling us about the recent sales.

Sold Data*

(See Video update)

Available Properties Data*

Total Avilable Properties: 104

Total Available Days on Market: 93

Average List Price: $647,847

Accepted Offers (Pending Properties)*

Total Accepted Offers(in contract): 87

Average Days on Market: 67

Average List price for accepted offers: $499,633

Median List price for Available and Accepted offers: $574,800*

April showers have been very good to one of my clients who participated in a garden home tour sponsored by the Santa Clara Water District. This is a perfect opportunity for San Jose homeowners to preview local gardens and explore the many possibilities without having to experiment on their back yard.

Jon and Janet’s Garden

Jon and Janet live in the Burbank area and  have seen their garden turn from dirt to a beautiful garden retreat after helping them buy their home. Among the many amazing accomplishments they have a self sustaining vegetable garden, an herb garden, a chicken coup, wild grasses and plants that need very little water, and a an Aquaponic garden fueled by a live fish tank.

Bay-Frendly Garden Tours

Jon and Janet will open their garden to the public this Sunday May 15th 2011 as part of a county wide garden tour.

Registration for Garden tour: http://www.bayfriendlycoalition.org

Gardening Resources

There are resources and gardening information for Santa Clara County home owners available to you from the following organization.

California Native Plant Society:  http://www.cnps.org

Going Native Garden Tour: http://www.gngt.org

Related articles

• Peninsula’s 9th Annual “Going Native” Garden Tour (naturalhistorywanderings.com)

Affordable housing and down payment and assistance programs are changing with the state budget deficit and elimination of the San Jose Redevelopment department.

First time homebuyers are now forced to look at the remaining Down Payment Assistance Programs(DAP) available though the rest of this year and for the foreseeable future.

The Santa Clara County Housing Trust has created a week long program to help you navigate through all the changes and help people in need of housing information. Among them we still have access to the 23 Million dollar grant for affordable housing and stabilization of the Santa Clara County communities.

Here is a list of available programs during affordable housing week.

Saturday, April 30

• All day: Rebuilding Together Day of Service – Home Rehabilitation for Seniors, Disabled and Families.

(Multiple sites in Santa Clara County) Contact: bjackson@rebuildingtogether-sv.org

• 10am – 6pm: 8-Hour Homebuyer Education Class, Project Sentinel

(San Jose) Rose Garden Library, 1580 Naglee Ave., San Jose.

Contact: mediate4us@housing.org

Tuesday, May 3

• 11am – MidPen Housing Fair Oaks Plaza Construction Tour. (Sunnyvale)

660 S. Fair Oaks Ave., Sunnyvale, CA 94086.

Contact: kish@midpen-housing.org

• 1pm – 2pm; Palo Alto Housing Corp., tour of the Tree House.  (Palo Alto)

(currently under construction, hard hat area),  488 W. Charleston Road, Palo Alto, CA.

Contact:cgonzalez@paloaltohousingcorp.org

• 6pm – 8pm: NHSSV Class, Foreclosure Intervention & Loan Modification.

(San Jose) Roosevelt Community Center, 901 E. Santa Clara St., San Jose, CA 95116.

Contact: jangulo@nhssv.org

Wednesday, May 4

• 8:30am to 3pm: Silicon Valley Housing Summit at Oshman Community Center (Palo Alto)

3921 Fabian Way, Palo Alto, CA. Hosted by Silicon Valley Leadership Group & Housing Trust of Santa Clara County. Contact: http://housingsummit2011.eventbrite.com

• 6pm – 8pm: Housing Trust of Santa Clara County, NSP Workshop (San Jose)

Santa Teresa Library, 290 International Circle, San Jose. Contact: Dan@housingtrustscc.org

• 6pm: South County Housing, Housing Fair (Morgan Hill)

Jasmine Square Community Rm., 16530 Monterey Rd., Morgan Hill, CA. Showcasing Madrone Plaza & Alexander Place. Contact: Robyn@scounty.com

Thursday, May 5

• 12pm – 1pm: Habitat for Humanity Construction Tour (Morgan Hill)

16804 Cory Drive, Morgan Hill, CA. Contact: espaulding@hfhsv.org

• 3pm – 5pm: Affordable Housing Resource Fair (Cupertino)

West Valley Community Services, 10104 Vista Dr., Cupertino, CA 95014
Contact:sarons@wvcommunityservices.org

• 6pm – 8pm: NHSSV Class, Homebuyer (San Jose)

Education & Orientation
Roosevelt Community Center, 901 E. Santa Clara St., San Jose, CA 95116
Contact:jangulo@nhssv.org

Friday, May 6

• 10am-11am: InnVision Villa Tour, (San Jose)

184 S. 11th St., San Jose, CA 95112. Contact:jburkhead@innvision.org

• 1pm – 2pm: Family Supportive Housing, Charities Housing & the Core Companies Three-Site Tour (San Jose)

686 N. King Rd. (Park on Dobbin St. at King). Showcasing Family Supportive Housing, Kings Crossing & Belovida. Contact:fwright@charitieshousing.org

Saturday, May 7

• 9am – 12 noon: First-time Homebuyer Seminar & Resource Fair, SILVAR & City of Cupertino Cupertino Community Hall, (Cupertino)

10350 Torre Avenue Cupertino, CA 95014. Contact: verag@cupertino.org

Pilot could open the door for more

The thought of a bank or investor willing to write off a portion of your mortgage can be very attractive but it does come with it’s challenges. Over the past four years there have been attempts to have principal reduction included in modifications and up to now there have been a few clients that I am aware of to have received this opportunity.

Most have had loan amounts under the conforming amount of $417,000. My concern with this decision by Bank of America is for homeowners who have made payments on time. How are they going to feel knowing their neighbor received a principal write down? The taxpayer is most likely going to carry the burden of this move towards principal reduction. This may also be the beginning for future programs but will they make a significant impact in our community?

Santa Clara County may not have an opportunity

The conforming loan amount makes it easy for Fannie Mae or Freddy Mac to offer this in most cases.  Bank of America is a servicer, they don’t own the paper on the loans they service. Fannie and Freddy inventory is primarily located in areas where homes sold under the conforming loan amount. Santa Clara County would most likely not see much activity from this pilot program.

“The program will be funded from the $699.6 million the California Housing Finance Agency received from Treasury Department’s Hardest Hit Fund last year. A spokesperson for the CalHFA said there is no set amount of loans BofA is targeting, but the bank will be soliciting eligible homeowners soon.”

Related Article: Bank of America set to write down principal on California mortgages (Housingwire)