Most San Jose neighborhood values will continue to perform well in 2011 and into 2012 even with the recent negative news about Bank of America unleashing a slew of new foreclosures into California in the coming months.

Foreclosure levels will remain the same in 2012

That’s a pretty bold statement on my behalf but having just retuned from a national foreclosure convention I stand in pretty good company including the likes of Freddy Mac economists and various other national asset diposition companies who are all waiting for the foreclosure activity to increase.

The challenge over the last year has been the slow and methodical process of making sure banks are staying within the legal boundaries of the foreclosure process all brought on by the ROBO signing lawsuits. As a result the anticipated levels of foreclosiure activites are expected to stay at current levels through 2012.

What does this mean for San Jose Neighborhoods?

Neighborhoods like Willow Glen, Rose Garden, Almaden Valley, and Santana Row to name a few should continue to maintained their values while Downtown, Central San Jose, South San Jose, and the east valley will feel the affects of foreclosure activity.

Should I wait for the market to turn?

Experts at the foreclosure convention are now saying that we will continue to see the current real estate market through 2016. You have plenty of time to buy before the market sees a significant change and until then buyers will continue to find opportunities in those neighborhoods affected by foreclosures.

Related articles

• California foreclosures set to surge (Housingwire.com)

06085 – Foreclosure Inventories

Foreclosure inventories stayed steady with little change to the amount of people who defaulted on their loans(green) and even less sale activity(blue). This is the first month that showed 0% activity in REO inventory levels(red).

06085 – Foreclosure Filings

Notice of sales increased(blue) while people who received a notice of default fell slightly(green).

06085 – Foreclosure Outcomes

Cancellations fell last month reducing the amount of foreclosure postponements for people currently in default(grey). Postponements(cancellations) are a good indicator of modification and short sale activity. The number of properties going back to the banks as a result of a sale increased slightly(red).

06085 – Time to Foreclose

The average time a homeowner had before losing their home to foreclosure has continued its steady climb and is close to one year(green). Bank are taking an average of 200 days to sell properties(red).

Foreclosure Filings* have dropped over since February as shown by the Notice of Sale indicator down 32% from the previous year.

06085 – Foreclosure Outcomes

Foreclosure Outcomes* show cancellations are way up over the previous year possibly fueled by successful short sales. My own experience tells me that modifications made up a very small percentage of these cancellations. REO indicator also shows that properties are not going back to bank compared to the previous year again fueling my thought that properties are having success in short sale and modification attempts.

06085 – Foreclosure Inventories

2011 Foreclosure Inventories* have stayed steady with a steady drop in scheduled sale dates possibly fueled by modifications or short sales.

06085 – Time to Foreclose

Foreclosure Timeframes*
The interesting fact about this chart is how many months it’s taking for a bank to foreclose compared to the previous year there are clear signs that banks are moving though the foreclosure process much faster 5.97% compared to 21.66% from the previous year.

*Foreclosureradar.com

Related articles

• Santa Clara County Foreclosures, Bank Owned Homes, Short Sales (foreclosureradar.com)

• In Santa Clara County only 37% of the population can afford to buy a home at the $545,000 median range.
• The required take home to purchase is $117,630.
• Your monthly payment will be around $2,940.

The Chart below shows the cost of home ownership in California.

Related articles

• C.A.R. releases Q1 2011 Housing Affordability Index (car.org)

Check out my video update for the Santana Row area neighborhoods. Find out how long it takes to sell a home in these neighborhoods and what the market is telling us about the recent sales.

Sold Data*

(See Video update)

Available Properties Data*

Total Avilable Properties: 104

Total Available Days on Market: 93

Average List Price: $647,847

Accepted Offers (Pending Properties)*

Total Accepted Offers(in contract): 87

Average Days on Market: 67

Average List price for accepted offers: $499,633

Median List price for Available and Accepted offers: $574,800*

Pilot could open the door for more

The thought of a bank or investor willing to write off a portion of your mortgage can be very attractive but it does come with it’s challenges. Over the past four years there have been attempts to have principal reduction included in modifications and up to now there have been a few clients that I am aware of to have received this opportunity.

Most have had loan amounts under the conforming amount of $417,000. My concern with this decision by Bank of America is for homeowners who have made payments on time. How are they going to feel knowing their neighbor received a principal write down? The taxpayer is most likely going to carry the burden of this move towards principal reduction. This may also be the beginning for future programs but will they make a significant impact in our community?

Santa Clara County may not have an opportunity

The conforming loan amount makes it easy for Fannie Mae or Freddy Mac to offer this in most cases.  Bank of America is a servicer, they don’t own the paper on the loans they service. Fannie and Freddy inventory is primarily located in areas where homes sold under the conforming loan amount. Santa Clara County would most likely not see much activity from this pilot program.

“The program will be funded from the $699.6 million the California Housing Finance Agency received from Treasury Department’s Hardest Hit Fund last year. A spokesperson for the CalHFA said there is no set amount of loans BofA is targeting, but the bank will be soliciting eligible homeowners soon.”

Related Article: Bank of America set to write down principal on California mortgages (Housingwire)

National Stabilization Program(NSP) Round 2

Santa Clara County has quietly become an example of a initiative to revitalize it’s housing market by injecting a twenty five million dollar grant into its neighborhoods. NSP2 dollars have been awarded by the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) to targeted cities in an effort to fight blight in specific neighborhoods that could stall the housing recovery.

The second round follows on the heels of a first round that was rewarded last year and has since expired. The management of the funds is handled by the Housing Trust of Santa Clara County.

How NSP2 will be used in Santa Clara County

NSP2 will be used to provide up to 100 Purchase Assistance Loans to low and moderate income households buying foreclosed and abandoned properties within the designated area. Acquire and rehabilitate up to 105 bank- owned homes for resale to low and moderate income households. Twenty-five percent of the grant total ($6,250,000) will be reserved to assist households at or below 50 percent of area median income.

Target Areas in Santa Clara County

NSP2 dollars must be used in targeted census areas.

Download area map to see if you are buying in a neighborhood that is benefiting from NSP2.

Census Tracts-Council Districts

What are the requirements?

The California Association of REALTORS latest report tracks entry level housing requirements for the state of California over the second quarter of 2010. Santa Clara County has slipped slightly in the affordability index from 55% in Q1 2010 to 51% in Q2 2010.

The report also tracks income requirements for entry level housing and monthly  principal, interest, taxes, and insurance (PITI) payments a buyer should budget towards housing. A first time home buyer would need to make a PITI payment of $2,940. This is taking into account a Santa Clara County median purchase price of $535,500.

Read report here

Just when most buyers face the end of the $8,000 tax credit Governor Schwarzenegger has revealed a new incentive planned for May 1st that would give buyers up to $10,000.

The day after the federal government credit expires this new state credit would pick up where the federal one left off.
Details of the credit qualifications have not been finalized but the funding is coming from a $100 million dollar program crafted last year as reported by the Wall Street Journal.

Read article here

• 52% of Santa Clara County residents currently qualify based on current housing prices and personal incomes.
• The Chart below shows that you have to bring home a combined total of $85,200 in order to make an average payment of $2,840(taxes and insurance included).
• Based on this criteria you should be able to purchase a home on an average sales price of $497,250.

There are more affordable homes in Santa Clara County and as such you can qualify for less. Consult your banks loan officer or mortgage broker to pre-qualify yourself.

Click here to read C.A.R.’s full report